Contents

Science

OzClim Climate Change Scenario Generator

|| Climate Change Science || How OzClim works ||

 

TOP


Climate Change in Australia report

In 2007, the CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology released a report on climate projections for Australia for 2030, 2050 and 2070 (Climate change in Australia). The report presents climate change projections (with probabilities) using Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) and presents the best estimate for the range of climate change for the Australian region, for climate variables such as temperature, rainfall, evaporation and wind. The PDFs have been generated using the data from 23 climate models used within the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report and global warming estimates based on the results of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.

In comparison, OzClim generates climate change scenarios using the pattern of change for the whole 21st century, individually from each of 23 global climate models. In addition, OzClim can combine the climate change scenario with the observed dataset to create a projected future climate (as opposed to a projected future climate change). OzClim will also maintain internal consistency when generating climate scenarios for multiple climatic variables. These two features are particularly useful for generating inputs for impact assessments. (see Which climate scenario should I use for my impact model? for further detail). Global warming values used in OzClim are based on the IPCC (2007) Fourth Assessment Report.

Chapter 6 of The Climate Change In Australia Technical Report is a good resource

Emissions scenarios

The SRES Marker Scenario A1 storyline and scenario family describes a future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. Major underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity building, and increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. The A1 scenario family develops into three groups that describe alternative directions of technological change in the energy system.

The A1B group is based on the A1 storyline and scenario family but describes a balance across all energy sources.

The A1FI group is based on the A1 storyline and scenario family but describes an alternative direction of technological change in the energy system by emphasizing fossil-fuel intensity.

The A1T group is also based on the A1 storyline and scenario family but emphasizes predominately non-fossil energy resources.

The SRES Marker Scenario A2 storyline and scenario family describes a very heterogeneous world. The underlying theme is self-reliance and preservation of local identities. Fertility patterns across regions converge very slowly, which results in continuously increasing global population. Economic development is primarily regionally oriented and per capita economic growth and technological change is more fragmented and slower than in other storylines.

The SRES Marker Scenario B1 storyline and scenario family describes a convergent world with rapid change in economic structures, "dematerialization" and introduction of clean technologies. The emphasis is on global solutions to environmental and social sustainability, including concerted efforts for rapid technology development, dematerialization of the economy, and improving equity.

The SRES Marker Scenario B2 storyline and scenario family describes a world in which the emphasis is on local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability. It is a world with continuously increasing global population at a rate lower than A2, intermediate levels of economic development, and less rapid and more diverse technological change than in the B1 and A1 storylines. While the scenario is also oriented toward environmental protection and social equity, it focuses on local and regional levels.

The carbon dioxide (CO2) methane (CH4) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions and concentrations associated with each of these scenarios are shown below along with radiative forcing and global warming. Scenarios for nitrous oxide, halocarbons, and ozone were also developed by the IPCC.


 

Figure: The carbon dioxide (CO2) methane (CH4) and sulfur dioxide (SO2)emissions and concentrations associated with six SRES scenarios (A1B, A1T A1FI, A2, B1, B2) along with radiative forcing and global warming.

The 450ppm stabilisation by 2100 scenario describes an emission reduction scenario that stabilises CO2 concentrations at 450 parts per million (ppm) by the year 2100. This is shown in the yellow curves below.

The 550ppm stabilisation by 2150 scenario describes an emission reduction scenario that stabilises CO2 concentrations at 550 parts per million (ppm) by 2150. This is shown in the green curves below.


 
Figure: CO2 emissions (left panel) and CO2concentrations (right panel) for SRES emission scenarios A2, A1B, B1 (black lines), emission reduction scenario that stabilises CO2 concentrations at 450ppm by 2100 (yellow) and emission reduction scenario that stabilises CO2concentrations at 550ppm by 2150 (green). Also shown are stablisation scenarios for 650 ppm by 2200 (blue), 750 ppm by 2250 (cyan) and 1000 ppm by 2300 (red).

See the section on projected global warming to see how OzClim uses the emission scenarios to generate climate scenarios.

For more information about emission scenarios please see the following websites:

Climate Variables (under construction)

OzClim provides access to 16 different climate variables, 11 terrestrial and 5 ocean. These are described below.

Variable

Description
Evapotranspiration: Areal PotentialThis variable is calculated according to the APET method of Morton 1983 as described above with the exception that a different observed dataset is used. OzClim now uses an observed APET dataset developed by the Bureau of Meteorology for the Australian Water Resources Assessment (Australian Bureau of Meteorology 2011) . The historic reference period used is unchanged (1975 – 2004).
Evaporation: Simulated PanThis variable is supplied for users who wish to work with Pan Evaporation rather than APET. Global climate model (GCM) results are used to calculate future Point Potential Evapotranspiration according to the method of Morton 1983. Changes are then calculated with reference to the same observed Pan Evaporation dataset described above. Thus, this variable provides an approximation of future Pan Evaporation which we have called “Simulated Pan” (see Kirono et al. 2009 for a comparison).
Ocean Salinity (3 variables)

The salinity of the ocean at:

  • the surface,
  • at 5m depth, or
  • at 25m depth,

as produced by the climate model. Data are expressed in grams per litre.

Ocean Temperature (2 variables)

Mean temperature, in degrees Celcius (°C) of the:

  • surface layer of the ocean, or
  • at 250m depth,

as modelled by the climate model.

RainfallMean rainfall in millimetres (mm). When "Show Change from Base Climate (%)" is selected under "Base Climate (1990)" below, the units are percent change compared to the 1990 baseline.
Relative Humidity (3 variables)

Relative humidity near the Earth's surface (equivalent to that measured in a Stevenson Screen):

  • Daily mean
  • 9AM (09:00h)
  • 3PM (15:00h)

For all three variables, the values are calculated using the projected mean change in relative humidity to modify the relevant BoM high quality historical data. When "Show Change from Base Climate (%)" is selected under "Base Climate (1990)", the units are percent change relative to the base climate.

Solar RadiationSurface downwelling shortwave radiation (i.e. the direct short-wave component of incoming solar radiation). This may be considered as approximately equivalent to 'global radiation'.
Temperature (3 variables)

Air temperature at the Earth's surface (equivalent to that measured in a Stevenson Screen):

  • Mean temperature
  • Maximum temperature
  • Minimum temperature

Projected changes are calculated relative to the model's baseline period (1975-2004) and provided in °C.

Future values (when "Show future climate" is selected) are calculated by adding the projected change to the BoM observational dataset.

Wind SpeedMean wind speed (without a direction component) as simulated by the climate model, calculated from the model's 'zonal' (east-west) and 'meridional' (north-south) wind vectors. Wind data are provided over both land and sea. Wind speed is expressed in metres per second.

 

 

Global Climate Models

Global Climate Model (GCM) data were obtained from the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI). These are the GCMs that were used in production of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report, released in 2007. All of the climate models available in OzClim provide plausible projections of the future climate, even though they may differ considerably in their results. Details of each of the models are provided below:


Model Name
BCCR: BCM2.0
Climate Change in Australia (2007) Model Name (Number)
BCCR (1)
Host organisation
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR)
Country of origin
Norway
Atmospheric and ocean model attributes
Atmosphere: 31 vertical levels. T63 (1.9°x1.9°).
Ocean:35 vertical layers and approximately square horizontal grid cells with 1.5°grid spacing along the equator. Near the equator the meridional grid spacing is gradually decreased to 0.5°at the equator.

Annual rainfall pattern of change PDGW

Annual temperature pattern of change PDGW

Annual wind speed pattern of change PDGW

N/A

Annual averages show decreases in the west
and increases in the east. Summer shows
general increases except in SWWA. Autumn,
winter and spring show a successively more
pronounced decrease from the west.
Tasmania shows consistent increases.

Moderate increases across all of Australia,
smaller increases on Cape York, south-west WA
and along the southern coast of Australia,
stronger in spring

N/A

Link to further information http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/model_documentation/BCCR_BCM2.0.htm

TOP


Model Name
CCCMA: CCCM3.1(T47)
Climate Change in Australia (2007) Model Name (Number)
CCCMA T47 (2)
Host organisation
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling & Analysis (CCCMA)
Country of origin
Canada
Atmospheric and ocean model attributes
Atmosphere: T47 2.8°x2.8° horizontal resolution. and 31 levels in the vertical.
Ocean: The ocean grid shares the same land mask as the atmosphere, but has four ocean grid cells underlying every atmospheric grid cell. The ocean resolution in this case is roughly 1.85°, with 29 levels in the vertical

Annual rainfall pattern of change PDGW

Annual temperature pattern of change PDGW

Annual wind speed pattern of change PDGW

Annual averages show increases in the north of
Australia with the greatest increases in Autumn.
Spring shows decreases over much of the mid-
latitude east, and summer shows decreases in the
south east, including Tasmania

Moderate increases across all of Australia,
smaller increases on Cape York, along the southern
coast of Australia and Tasmania. Greater increases,
especially inland, in spring and summer.

Annual average and all seasons show
zonal changes, increases centrally and
southern decreases.

Link to further information http://www.cccma.bc.ec.gc.ca/models/cgcm3.shtml

TOP


Model Name
CCCMA: CGCM3.1(T63)
Climate Change in Australia (2007) Model Name (Number)
CCCMA T63 (3)
Host organisation
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling & Analysis (CCCMA)
Country of origin
Canada
Atmospheric and ocean model attributes
Atmosphere: T63, 1.9° degrees lat/lon and 31 levels in the vertical.
Ocean: The ocean grid shares the same land mask as the atmosphere, but in this case there are 6 ocean grids underlying every atmospheric grid cell. The ocean resolution is therefore approximately 1.4 degrees in longitude and 0.94 degrees in latitude. This provides slightly better resolution of zonal currents in the Tropics, more nearly isotropic resolution at mid latitudes, and somewhat reduced problems with converging meridians in the Arctic.

Annual rainfall pattern of change PDGW

Annual temperature pattern of change PDGW

Annual wind speed pattern of change PDGW

Annual averages and generally all seasons are
similar to CGCM3.1(T47) but with greater
increases and smaller decreases
(i.e. generally wetter).

Moderate increases across all of Australia
with an emphasis inland and west, less
along the southern coast of Australia
and Tasmania. Greater increases in spring.

Annual average and all seasons show
zonal changes, increases centrally and
southern decreases.

Link to further information http://www.cccma.bc.ec.gc.ca/models/cgcm3.shtml

TOP


Model Name
CNRM: CM3
Climate Change in Australia (2007) Model Name (Number)
CNRM (4)
Host organisation
Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Météo France (CNRM)
Country of origin
France
Atmospheric and ocean model attributes
Atmosphere: Resolution: 45 layers T63 horizontal resolution,1.9°x1.9°.
Ocean: Resolution: 31 layers, 182 x 152 grid (with resolution of about 2° in longitude, and resolution varying in latitude from near 0.5° at the equator to roughly 2° in polar regions)

Annual rainfall pattern of change PDGW

Annual temperature pattern of change PDGW

Annual wind speed pattern of change PDGW

Annual averages show general drying over
most of Australia, mostly related to winter
and spring, but with increases in the
tropics and Tasmania. Summer shows increases
in mid-latitude eastern Australia and autumn
shows increases in the mid-latitudes of
Western Australia

Moderate increases across all of Australia,
smaller increases on Cape York, south-west WA
and along the southern coast of Australia

 

Link to further information http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/model_documentation/CNRM-CM3.htm

TOP


Model Name
CSIRO: CSIRO Mk3.0
Climate Change in Australia (2007) Model Name (Number)
CSIRO-MK3.0 (5)
Host organisation
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
Country of origin
Australia
Atmospheric and ocean model attributes
Atmosphere: 18 vertical levels, horizontal resolution 1.8° lat/long, approx 200 km between gridpoints
Ocean: 31 vertical levels, horizontal resolution matching the atmospheric model, but 100 km resolution in the tropics to enhance the simulation of the El Niño Southern Oscillation.

Annual rainfall pattern of change PDGW

Annual temperature pattern of change PDGW

Annual wind speed pattern of change PDGW

N/A

Annual-average decreases across all of Australia,
except for increases along the east coast.
Widespread decreases in all seasons, but
increases in the south and east in summer and
over NSW and southern Qld in autumn.

Increases across all of Australia,
smaller increases along the southern coast of Australia

N/A

Link to further information
http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/model_documentation/CSIRO-Mk3.0.htm

TOP


Model Name
CSIRO: CSIRO Mk3.5
Climate Change in Australia (2007) Model Name (Number)
CSIRO-MK3.5 (6)
Host organisation
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
Country of origin
Australia
Atmospheric and ocean model attributes
Atmosphere: 18 vertical levels, horizontal resolution 1.8° lat/long, approx 200 km between gridpoints
Ocean: 31 vertical levels, horizontal resolution matching the atmospheric model, but 100 km resolution in the tropics to enhance the simulation of the El Niño Southern Oscillation.

Annual rainfall pattern of change PDGW

Annual temperature pattern of change PDGW

Annual wind speed pattern of change PDGW

Annual-average decreases across all of
Australia, except for increases along the east
coast. Widespread decreases in all seasons,
but increases in the south and east in summer
and over NSW and southern Qld in autumn.

Increases across all of Australia, smaller increases
along the southern coast of Australia

Generally moderate increases across most of
Australia with decreases over the west of Western
Australia.

Link to further information http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/model_documentation/CSIRO-Mk3.5.htm

TOP


Model Name
Max Planck: ECHAM5/MPI-OM
Climate Change in Australia (2007) Model Name (Number)
MPI-ECHAM5 (18)
Host organisation
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI)
Country of origin
Germany
Atmospheric and ocean model attributes
Atmosphere resolution: horizontal resolution 1.8° lat/long, approx 200 km between gridpoints, 31 vertical levels
Ocean: horizontal resolution 1.5° lat/long, 40 vertical levels

Annual rainfall pattern of change PDGW

Annual temperature pattern of change PDGW

Annual wind speed pattern of change PDGW

Annual-average decreases across temperate
Australia, with increases over tropical
Australia. Widespread decreases in all
seasons, but summer increases in tropical
Australia, eastern NSW and eastern S.A., and
autumn increases in the western two-thirds of
Australia.

Increases across all of Australia, smaller increases
along the southern coast of Australia.

Annual averages show increases over most of
Australia, especially in spring. Summer and autumn
show decreases in central Australia and coastal
increases. Winter shows a zonal decrease in the
south and increases in the north.

Link to further information
http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/model_documentation/ECHAM5_MPI-OM.htm

TOP


Model Name
MIUB/KMA: ECHO-G
Climate Change in Australia (2007) Model Name (Number)
MIUB (17)
Host organisation
Meteorological Institute of the University of Bonn (MIUB, Germany) and Institute of KMA (Korea) and Model and Data group
Country of origin
Germany and Korea
Atmospheric and ocean model attributes
Atmosphere: 3.75 degrees horizontal resolution, 19 vertical levels
Ocean: approx 2.8 degrees horizontal resolution, 20 vertical levels

Annual rainfall pattern of change PDGW

Annual temperature pattern of change PDGW

Annual wind speed pattern of change PDGW

Widespread annual-average increases, but
decreases along the south coast and
Tasmania, especially in spring, summer
and autumn. Widespread decreases in winter,
but increases in central and northern Australia.

Increases greatest in the northwest and
smallest in the east.

In all seasons northern regions show increases
with marked southern zonal decreases.

Link to further information
http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/model_documentation/ECHO-G.htm

TOP


Model Name
LASG/IAP: FGOALS-G1.0
Climate Change in Australia (2007) Model Name (Number)
IAP (12)
Host organisation
LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences
Country of origin
China
Atmospheric and ocean model attributes
Atmosphere: horizontal resolution: 2.8° lon x 2.8° lat, 26 vertical levels
Ocean: horizontal resolution 1°x1° lat/long

Annual rainfall pattern of change PDGW

Annual temperature pattern of change PDGW

Annual wind speed pattern of change PDGW

Primarily decreases across Australia for
all seasons.

Increases across Australia, stronger inland.
Weakest warming in winter.

Annual average shows moderate increases changes
with inland reductions in spring and summer

Link to further information
http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/model_documentation/FGOALS-g1.0.htm

TOP


Model Name
GFDL: GFDL 2.0
Climate Change in Australia (2007) Model Name (Number)
GFDL 2.0 (7)
Also referred to as
GFDL-CM2.0
Host organisation
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA (GFDL)
Country of origin
USA
Atmospheric and ocean model attributes
Atmosphere: 2.5° longitude, 2.0° latitude, 24  vertical levels,
Ocean: 1°longitudinal, 1° latitudinal with enhanced tropical resolution (1/3 on equator)

Annual rainfall pattern of change PDGW

Annual temperature pattern of change PDGW

Annual wind speed pattern of change PDGW

Annual-average decreases across Australia.
Widespread decreases in all seasons, except
for winter increases in the northern tropics
and southeast, and spring increases in
eastern Australia.

Moderate increases across all of Australia,
smaller increases along the southern coast of
Australia and Tasmania. Most pronounced change
in spring in central Australia.

Annual averages show icreases over
southern Australia. General increases
in summer except for decreases in
north-west Western Australia, other
seasosn show central reductions
with northen and southern increases.

Link to further information http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/model_documentation/GFDL-cm2.htm

TOP


Model Name
GFDL: GFDL 2.1
Climate Change in Australia (2007) Model Name (Number)
GFDL 2.1 (8)
Also referred to as
GFDL-CM2.1
Host organisation
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA (GFDL)
Country of origin
USA
Atmospheric and ocean model attributes
Atmosphere: horizontal resolution: 2.5° longitude x 2.0° latitude, 24 vertical levels
Ocean: horizontal resolution 1° longitude x 1° latitude with enhanced tropical resolution (1/3° lat/long on equator)

Annual rainfall pattern of change PDGW

Annual temperature pattern of change PDGW

Annual wind speed pattern of change PDGW

Annual-average decreases across Australia.
Widespread decreases in all seasons, except
for summer increases in the northern
tropics and southeast, and spring increases
in north Qld.

Increases across all of Australia,
smaller increases along the southern coast.

Annual averages show general increases, with
Inland reductions in summer, and zonal
reductions on the southern coast in winter.

Link to further information
http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/model_documentation/GFDL-cm2.htm

TOP


Model Name
NASA/GISS: GISS-AOM
Climate Change in Australia (2007) Model Name (Number)
GISS-AOM (9)
Host organisation
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (NASA/GISS)
Country of origin
USA
Atmospheric and ocean model attributes
Atmosphere: 4° longitude, 3° latitude, 12 vertical layers
Ocean: 4° longitude, 3° latitude, up to 16 vertical layers

Annual rainfall pattern of change PDGW

Annual temperature pattern of change PDGW

Annual wind speed pattern of change PDGW

Annual and seasonal averages show strong
drying over all of mid-latitudes, with
increases in the tropics. Tasmania shows
summer decreases with increases in other
seasons

Increases across all of Australia, greater
inland, less along the southern coast of
Australia, stronger in spring

Annual averages shows overall increases
with winter showing zonal southern
reductions and reductions in north
Western Australia

Link to further information http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/model_documentation/GISS-AOM.htm

TOP


Model Name
NASA/GISS: GISS-E-H
Climate Change in Australia (2007) Model Name (Number)
GISS-E-H (10)
Host organisation
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (NASA/GISS)
Country of origin
USA
Atmospheric and ocean model attributes
Atmosphere: 4° latitude, 5° longitude, 20 levels
Ocean: 2°x2°, 16 levels.

Annual rainfall pattern of change PDGW

Annual temperature pattern of change PDGW

Annual wind speed pattern of change PDGW

Annual and seasonal averages show increases
over all of Australia except for the south of
Western Australia which shows decreases.

Moderate increases across all of Australia
more in the west.

 

Link to further information http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/model_documentation/GISS-E.htm

TOP


Model Name
NASA/GISS: GISS-E-R
Climate Change in Australia (2007) Model Name (Number)
GISS-E-R (11)
Host organisation
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (NASA/GISS)
Country of origin
USA
Atmospheric and ocean model attributes
Atmosphere: 4° latitude, 5° longitude, 20 levels
Ocean: 4° latitude, 5° longitude, 13 levels

Annual rainfall pattern of change PDGW

Annual temperature pattern of change PDGW

Annual wind speed pattern of change PDGW

Annual averages show some decreases in the
west of Western Australia and in the eastern
tropics. There is extreme seasonality with
summer and spring mainly wetter, and autumn
and winter mainly drier.

Moderate increases across all of Australia
more in the west. Greater in autumn and winter.

 

Link to further information http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/model_documentation/GISS-R.htm

TOP


Model Name
INM: INM-CM3.0
Climate Change in Australia (2007) Model Name (Number)
INMCM (13)
Host organisation
Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Science, Russia (INM)
Country of origin
Russia
Atmospheric and ocean model attributes
Atmosphere: 21 vertical levels. 5x4 in longitude and latitude .
Ocean: , 33 levels. 2.5x2 degrees in longitude and latitude

Annual rainfall pattern of change PDGW

Annual temperature pattern of change PDGW

Annual wind speed pattern of change PDGW

Annual averages show increases in the west
of Western Australia, north eastern tropics
and eastern Tasmania with decreases elseewhere.
Spring shows increases over all of north and
decreases elsewhere.

Moderate increases across all of Australia,
smaller increases on Cape York, along the
southern coast of Australia and Tasmania.

 

Link to further information http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/model_documentation/INM_CM3.0.htm

TOP


Model Name
IPSL: IPSL-CM4
Climate Change in Australia (2007) Model Name (Number)
IPSL (14)
Host organisation
Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL)
Country of origin
France
Atmospheric and ocean model attributes
Atmosphere: 19 vertical levels,2.5° x 3.75° (i.e. 96x71 grid points)
Ocean: 31 levels 2° resolution Mercator grid with enhanced meridional resolution in the vicinity of the equator and in Mediterranean and Red seas (1°)

Annual rainfall pattern of change PDGW

Annual temperature pattern of change PDGW

Annual wind speed pattern of change PDGW

Annual averages show moderate decreases
generally with increases over central Western
Australia and in the tropics. Summer, autumn
and spring shows decreases over central and
southern Australia, Victoria and Tasmania.

Moderate increases across all of Australia,
smaller increases along the southern-eastern
coast of Australia and Tasmania.

 

Link to further information http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/model_documentation/IPSL-CM4.htm

TOP


Model Name
CCR: MIROC-H
Climate Change in Australia (2007) Model Name (Number)
MIROC-H (15)
Also referred to as
MIROC3.2(hires)
Host organisation
Center for Climate System Research, University of Tokyo (CCR). National Institute for Environmental Studies. Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC)
Country of origin
Japan
Atmospheric and ocean model attributes
Atmosphere: T106, 56 vertical levels, 1.1°x1.1°
Ocean: 47 vertical levels, 0.28° in longitude, 0.19° in latitude

Annual rainfall pattern of change PDGW

Annual temperature pattern of change PDGW

Annual wind speed pattern of change PDGW

Annual averages show slight decreases to
the west of Western Australia and increases
elsewhere. Spring tends to be drier except
in the mid-east of Australia

 

 

Link to further information http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/model_documentation/MIROC3.2_hires.htm

TOP


Model Name
CCR: MIROC-M
Climate Change in Australia (2007) Model Name (Number)
MIROC-M (16)
Also referred to as
MIROC3.2(medres)
Host organisation
Center for Climate System Research, University of Tokyo (CCR). National Institute for Environmental Studies.Frontier Research Center for Global Chance, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC)
Country of origin
Japan
Atmospheric and ocean model attributes
Atmosphere: T42 20 vertical levels, 2.8°x2.8° horizontal resolution
Ocean: 43 vertical levels, 0.5°-1.4°x1.4° horizontal resolution

Annual rainfall pattern of change PDGW

Annual temperature pattern of change PDGW

Annual wind speed pattern of change PDGW

Annual averages show decreases to the west
of Western Australia and increases elsewhere.
Spring tends to be drier except in the south-
east of Australia

Moderate increases across all of Australia,
smaller to the south and east.

 

Link to further information http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/model_documentation/MIROC3.2_medres.htm

TOP


Model Name
MRI: MRI-CGCM2.3.2
Climate Change in Australia (2007) Model Name (Number)
MRI (19)
Host organisation
Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency (MRI)
Country of origin
Japan
Atmospheric and ocean model attributes
Atmosphere: horizontal resolution: approx. 2.8°
Ocean: horizontal resolution: 2.5° longitude x 2.0° latitude outside the tropics (poleward of latitudes 12S and 12N) and 2.5° longitude x 0.5° latitude in the tropics (4° S - 4° N)

Annual rainfall pattern of change PDGW

Annual temperature pattern of change PDGW

Annual wind speed pattern of change PDGW

Annual-average decreases over most of
Australia, but increases in the tropics.
Widespread decreases in autumn winter and
spring, with widespread increases in summer
and spring increases in the north-west.

Increases across Australia, greatest inland.

Generally declines in the north except in
winter with southern zonal decreases.

Link to further information
http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/model_documentation/MRI-GCGM2.3.2.htm

TOP


Model Name
Hadley Centre: UKMO-HADCM3
Climate Change in Australia (2007) Model Name (Number)
HADCM3 (22)
Host organisation
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office (UKMO)
Country of origin
United Kingdom
Atmospheric and ocean model attributes
Atmosphere: 19 vertical levels, 2.5° latitude x 3.75° longitude
Ocean: 20 vertical levels,1.25° x 1.25°

Annual rainfall pattern of change PDGW

Annual temperature pattern of change PDGW

Annual wind speed pattern of change PDGW

Moderate increases across all of Australia
with an emphasis centrally east and west,
less along the southern coast of Australia
and Tasmania. Lowest increases in winter

Moderate increases across all of Australia, especially in mid-latitudes
greatest in spring.

 

Link to further information http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/model_documentation/CSIRO-Mk3.5.htm

TOP


Model Name
Hadley Centre: UKMO-HadGEM1
Climate Change in Australia (2007) Model Name (Number)
HADGEM1 (23)
Host organisation
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office (UKMO)
Country of origin
United Kingdom
Atmospheric and ocean model attributes
Atmosphere: horizontal resolution 1.25° latitude by 1.875° longitude, with 38 vertical levels extending to over 39 km in height.
Land surface: includes land and river routing components
Ocean: Ocean:40 levels, resolution 0.3° - 1.0° x 1.0°, includes sea ice component

Annual rainfall pattern of change PDGW

Annual temperature pattern of change PDGW

Annual wind speed pattern of change PDGW

Widespread decreases on an annual and
seasonal basis, except for summer increases in
the southeast, autumn/winter increases in the
north-west and inland parts of W.A.

Increases across Australia, largest inland. Smaller
increases in southern Australia during winter.

Annual averages show a general increase in all
seasons round the eastern and southern coasts. In
winter there is a reduction in the south of Western
and South Australia.

Link to further information
http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/model_documentation/HadGEM1.htm

TOP


Model Name
NCAR: NCAR CCSM3
Climate Change in Australia (2007) Model Name (Number)
NCAR-CCSM (20)
Host organisation
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
Country of origin
USA

Atmospheric and ocean model attributes
Atmosphere: Horizontal resolution: At the equator, the resolution is approximately 1.4° lat/long.
Ocean: horizontal resolution 0.27° lat x 1.125° long on the equator, 40 vertical levels.

Annual rainfall pattern of change PDGW

Annual temperature pattern of change PDGW

Annual wind speed pattern of change PDGW

N/A

Annual-average increases in northern and
eastern Australia. Widespread increases in
spring and summer. In autumn, increases in the
north with decreases elsewhere. Widespread
decreases in winter.

Increases across Australia, largest inland. Smaller
increases in the northern and eastern Australia during
summer.

N/A

Link to further information
http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/model_documentation/CCSM3.htm

TOP


Model Name
NCAR: NCAR PCM1
Climate Change in Australia (2007) Model Name (Number)
NCAR-PCM1 (21)
Host organisation
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
Country of origin
USA
Atmospheric and ocean model attributes
Atmosphere: 26 vertical levels, T42. 2.8°x2.8° horizontal resolution.
Ocean: 40 vertical levels, 0.5°-0.7°x1.1° horizontal resolution

Annual rainfall pattern of change PDGW

Annual temperature pattern of change PDGW

Annual wind speed pattern of change PDGW

N/A

Annual averages show increases in northern
and eastern Australia with drying in mid-
latitude Western Australia. Spring shows
increases to the north and decreases to
the south.

Moderate increases across all of Australia,
higher inland, smaller increases in the north,
and greater in spring.

N/A

Link to further information http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/model_documentation/PCM.htm

TOP


OzClim Product Development

OzClim contains patterns of regional change, obtained from a selection of different global climate models run by CSIRO and other research centres and archived at the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI). These model simulations are used as part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (2007). The patterns of change can be scaled by different global warming scenarios to obtain scenarios of climate change across Australia for 5-yearly intervals from 2010 to 2100.

OzClim is intended to provide:

  • increased accessibility to climate change scenarios for Australia, through a user-friendly web tool,
  • a web based facility to help explain and generate scenarios for people new to climate change,
  • advanced functionality for technical practitioners
  • data on a 25 km grid over Australia, for 5-year increments in the 21st century, for user-selected greenhouse gas emission scenarios and climate models
  • a facility to download the scenarios as images, text (csv) or GIS files,
  • data in a format suitable for input to impact studies.

The four major potential uses of OzClim are as:

  • a source of Australian climate scenario output
  • a research tool to explore sectoral vulnerability to climate change for a wide range of initial assumptions
  • a visualisation tool
  • an educational tool

Features and data will be added regularly to OzClim.

TOP


Acknowledgments

The development of OzClim as a web application was undertaken by the CSIRO. CSIRO acknowledges the contributions of the following non-CSIRO sources:

Development of OzClim as a web application

The Department of Climate Change provided funding to develop OzClim as a web application and continues to fund ongoing improvement and maintenance.
www.climatechange.gov.au

Observed baseline climate data

The observed baseline climate was obtained from and is the copyright of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
www.bom.gov.au

Global Climate Model Data

The global climate model data used to generate the climate change patterns for OzClim were obtained from the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI)
www-pcmdi.llnl.gov

We acknowledge the modelling groups, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and the WCRP's Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) for their roles in making available the WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset. Support of this dataset is provided by the Office of Science, U.S. Department of Energy.

Global warming data

The global warming data were generated by Dr Sarah Raper using MAGICC and downloaded from the IPCC-DDC site. The MAGICC software was created by Hulme, Raper and Wigley.
www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/projects/magicc/

TOP


How OzClim works

Projected Global Warming

OzClim uses scenarios for greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols from the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES, 2000). Global warming projections derived from these scenarios in 5-yearly intervals were sourced from the IPCC (2001) Third Assessment Report. These differ slightly to the global warming projections in the IPCC (2007) Fourth Assessment Report, but the latest projections are not currently available in 5-yearly intervals, so they have not been included in OzClim .

The SRES authors developed a series of storylines, based on assumptions about demographic change, economic development and technological advances, that were then given to modelling groups to estimate emissions for the major greenhouse gases and aerosols.

MAGICC(Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change), a simple one-dimensional atmosphere-ocean model was used by the IPCC to estimate projected global warming and sea-level rise from various emissions scenarios at low, mid-range and high rate of global warming. OzClim uses these data.

OzClim contains global warming values for six SRES scenarios and two stabilisation scenarios for three levels of global warming rates. The global warming values associated with the eight emission scenarios are shown in the graphs below. More information about the aerosol emission scenarios can be obtained from the emission section of the Science page.

The eight emission scenarios used within OzClim are:

  • SRES Marker Scenario A1B
  • SRES Marker Scenario A2
  • SRES Marker Scenario B1
  • SRES Marker Scenario B2
  • SRES Marker Scenario A1FI
  • SRES Marker Scenario A1T
  • 450ppm stabilisation by 2100
  • 550ppm stabilisation by 2150

Figure: Global-average temperature change for low (orange), mid (red) and high (maroon) rate of global warming for six SRES emission scenarios and two stabilisation (450ppm, 550ppm) scenarios. (Source: SRES 2000)

TOP


Generation of Patterns of Change

OzClim uses a method developed by the CSIRO for extracting patterns of change from climate models. It involves linear regression between the global warming of the model and the local value of a climatic variable (e.g. temperature) to get the slope value b from the regression equation y=a+bx for each grid point. A slope pattern is calculated for each month. The slope represents a local change per degree of global warming.

For each gridpoint, the slope is calculated as follows:

Step 1. The global annual temperature for each year is extracted from the GCM output (panel A).

Step 2. The local monthly average temperature time-series for an individual gridpoint extracted from the GCM output (panel B).

Step 3. The regression (black line) is found from the global annual temperature (panel A) and the local monthly average temperature (panel B) datasets. The pattern of change per degree of global warming is the value of the slope line (panel C).

Step 4. The three steps above are repeated until the slope is found for each gridpoint. A pattern of change per degree of global warming can then be produced in map format for each month (Panel D). The figure below shows the temperature change per degree of global warming over Australia in degrees Celsius (°C).

OzClim stores monthly patterns of change and combines these patterns for seasonal and annual changes. Temperature is stored as °C change per °C of global warming. The monthly slope pattern of rainfall is divided by the 1975 to 2004 average of the rainfall total for that month and multiplied by 100 producing a pattern of rainfall change expressed as percent change per °C of global warming.
 
Figure: Generating a pattern of change for an individual month and global climate model (GCM). Panel A is the annual global temperature for the GCM. Panel B is the monthly temperature time-series for an individual gridpoint. Panel C is the combination of Panel A and Panel B. Panel D displays the slope for each gridpoint.

More information about how CSIRO generates patterns of regional climate change can be found in the technical reports Australian climate change projections for impact assessment and policy application: A review and Climate Change in Australia.

TOP


Calculating Future Climate Scenarios

Climate scenarios can be generated for up to 12 climatic variables, for every five years between 2010 and 2100 on a monthly, seasonal or annual basis.

Input type for future climate scenario

Method of creation of input type

Observed baseline climatology (1975 - 2004)

Obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Regional pattern of change from Global Climate Model (GCM)

See Generation of Patterns of Change

Global warming value taken from an emission scenario for a particular year and rate of global warming

Emissions and rate of global warming are converted to global warming using software called MAGICC

Figure: Climate scenario generation for annual temperature in 2060. The regional pattern from the GCM is multiplied by the global warming and added to the observed baseline climatology. In this example, the GCM is CSIRO Mk3, the emission scenario is SRES A1FI, and the rate of global warming is high.

This process can be repeated for different combinations of emission scenarios, climate sensitivities, years and regional patterns of change.

TOP

 

OzClim Climate Change Scenario Generator

Labels
  • None